es una gran colección de modelos avanzados con una multitud de aplicaciones industriales. El libro se basa en años de investigación académica y la experiencia práctica de consultoría, junto con contribuciones de expertos de en múltiples campos. El software Modeling Toolkit contiene todos los modelos, Risk Simulator contiene software de simulación de riesgos, y el software Real Options SLS fueron desarrollados por el autor, con más de 1.000 funciones, herramientas y plantillas de modelo en estas aplicaciones de software. Las versiones de prueba están incluidas en el DVD que acompaña al texto. Las aplicaciones cubiertas son muy amplias. Se incluyen los requerimientos de riesgo de Basilea II (riesgo de crédito, los diferenciales de crédito, riesgo de incumplimiento, el valor en riesgo, etc) y el análisis financiero (opciones exóticas y valoración), análisis de riesgo (pronóstico estocástico, basado en el riesgo de la simulación Monte Carlo, optimización), análisis de las opciones reales (opciones estratégicas, análisis de decisiones), Six Sigma y las iniciativas de calidad, la ciencia de la administración y aplicaciones estadísticas, e incluyendo todo lo demás, como la estadística aplicada, manufactura, investigación de operaciones, optimización, predicción, y econometría.
Este libro está dirigido a profesionales que requieren los algoritmos, ejemplos, modelos y conocimientos en la solución de los problemas más avanzados. Este libro no sólo habla de modelos, para ilustrar conceptos básicos y ejemplos, sino que se completa con un DVD con una muestra de videos de modelación, estudios de casos y aplicaciones de software para ayudarle a empezar de inmediato en el estudio. En otras palabras, este libro prescinde de todas las discusiones teóricas y los modelos matemáticos que son extremadamente difíciles de descifrar y aplicar en el mundo real de los negocios. En su lugar, estos modelos teóricos han sido codificados para usar dentro del software de una manera fácil de usar. Este libro muestra al lector cómo iniciar la aplicación de técnicas avanzadas de modelación casi de inmediato. Las aplicaciones del software de prueba le permiten acceder a 300 plantillas de modelo y aproximadamente 800 funciones y herramientas, para entender los conceptos, y utilizar las funciones integradas y algoritmos en sus propios modelos. Además, usted puede conseguir ejecutar simulaciones de riesgo basadas en simulaciones Monte Carlo y en otros métodos avanzados de pronóstico, y desarrollar la optimización de una gran variedad de situaciones, así como la estructura y opciones personalizadas para resolver opciones reales y problemas con opciones financieras.
Cada plantilla modelo que viene en el software Modeling Toolkit se describe en este libro. Se proporcionan las descripciones de todos los detalles como las aplicaciones. Algunos de los conceptos fundamentales en el análisis de riesgos y las opciones reales son tratados en otros libros del autor. Se sugieren estos libros: Modeling Risk (Second Edition): Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization (2010) and Real Options Analysis, Second Edition (2005), ambos publicados por John Wiley & Sons , se utilizarán como referencia para algunos de los modelos en este libro. Ciertas cuestiones de modelación que son, en opinión del autor, críticas, como cuestiones básicas o algunas más avanzadas, se presentan en detalle. Como las aplicaciones de software cambian continuamente, se recomienda que usted consulte con frecuencia el sitio web del autor (www.realoptionsvaluation.com) para cualquier actualización analítica, actualizaciones de software y modelos revisados o nuevos.
Advanced Analytical Models contain many powerful and useful applications ranging from R&D strategy valuation and Six Sigma models to risk simulation and strategic options. A must-have book for those starting out in Excel modeling to advanced modelers. An excellent resource for those applying stochastic models for portfolio project prioritization and valuation.»
-Dr. Robert Finocchiaro, Technical Director, Corporate R&D Services, The 3M Company
Dr. Johnathan Mun is one of the most gifted teachers of quantitative risk analysis in the history of global finance and business. All of his books combine science, art, intuition, creativity, and above all, they are acutely perceptive, always practical, and provide startling clarity, on the methods and pathways of proper business decision making, when faced with uncertainty. Advanced Analytical Models contains a vast treasure trove of over 800 models, unlike anything ever published in the field. Absolutely groundbreaking…The practical application of the risk models in this book, will keep the rest of us busy, for years to come.
-Brian Watt, CRM, Chief Risk Officer and Chief Financial Officer, GECC
Dr. Mun’s expertise in real options and practical modeling methodologies in real world cases is superb, and was used to value technologies in the U.S. military’s Improved Engineering Design Process. His approach quantified real net benefits when considering the knowledge reuse on an enterprise scale and his approach is the most powerful when business value is most difficult to quantify.
-Dr. Ali Farsaie, President & CEO, Spatial Integrated Systems, Inc.
«Dr. Mun’s latest book is scholarly strong and practically meaningful, by successfully synthesizing all aspects of risk and analytical models and presents them in a well-integrated manner. It is a must-read for both practitioners and students in the field of risk management. The Basel II risk analysis is covered extensively through real examples. With in-depth coverage of the most important and practical models, Dr. Mun’s book has set a high standard of publishing in the area of analytical models, risk and decision analysis. The book has significant practical contributions at all levels of risk management. I strongly recommend this book to all readers who want to gain a clear and applied understanding of risk and analytical models.
-Dr. Ehsan Nikbakht, CFA, FRM, PRM, Professor of Finance, Zarb School of Business, Hofstra University, New York
An outstanding collection of important analytic models that span numerous disciplines and can be used in a wide range of industries. The models and their underlying discussion are sound and can be applied as is or modified by the reader for their own applications. The well-written book together with the trial software and models are a powerful combination and provide an exceptional learning opportunity for the reader. This material should be valuable to both analysts and managers who need a sound analytical framework to help them develop and support their decisions.
-Dr. Edmund H. Conrow, CRM, PMP, Risk Management Consultant/Author
Dr. Mun has created -‘The Encyclopedia of Models’, which addresses a wide-range of cross-industry and cross-enterprise analytical challenges. The models span the spectrum – from simple techniques that one can perform in a few minutes to advanced problems that are tackled in a robust manner. Dr Mun’s new book will show you how to combine analytical methods to point at the right answers. Three words to sum it up: Comprehensive, Lucid, and, Elegant. Every aspiring and accomplished analyst needs to have this book in their library.
-Mark A. Benyovszky, Managing Director, -Zero Delta Center for Enterprise Alignment and Zero Delta University
Risk simulation, binomial lattices, and other computational models have not been within effective reach for many in-the-trenches professionals who did not get this training years ago. Through this book, on top his other books before it, and through his software, Dr. Mun has explained the mysteries, made available the tools, and continues to publish example upon example of how these models can be applied to improve the professional work we’ve been doing. Once in a while, a new thought leader emerges with a train long enough for the rest of us to ride to attain a new level of professionalism – Dr. Mun is one of these.
-James F. Joyner III, CPA/ABV, CVA, CPC, AIFA, Managing Member, Integra Benefits Consulting LLC
The mechanics of risk and options analyses are simple, but successful real-life application is all about the art of framing which requires constant practice. This book is a framing-fitness work-out through an extraordinary variety of recipes. Framing is not just for modeling, without it, decision making under uncertainties is much harder than it already is. If the answer is not explicit in an example, it is likely to exist as a variant in another- reading them triggered solutions to two commodity related problems that have plagued me for some time.
-Fanton Chuck, Chief Executive Officer, Renova Energy plc
Over the years Johnathan Mun’s books have become our corporate bibles with multiple copies in our library. We have recently made the big switch over to Dr. Mun’s Modeling Toolkit, Risk Simulator, and Real Options SLS because we found it easier to use while still being more sophisticated and flexible for our needs. «Advanced Analytical Models» is designed to complement the software and is just packed with useful real-life models that are directly applicable to our consulting work. The small refinements such as being able to specify the random number sequence so that you actually can get the same results in a live presentation reflect his sensitivity and understanding of the consulting environment. We have found his Real Options SLS invaluable in helping hospitals understand the different phasing options available to them when contemplating seemingly unreachable $500M capital projects. Dr. Mun’s genius lies in his ability to take extremely complex theory and bring it down to the level that the rest of us can understand and easily apply to our respective fields. Entertaining as always, who ever thought we would get a book on advance analytics that was actually funny! For an industry (healthcare) that increasingly has to forecast 10 and 15 years into the future while still relying on «budget period» analytics and single point estimates, Dr. Mun’s book is a «light in the storm.» Numerous healthcare examples from queuing theory to methods for analyzing surgical outcomes bring serious analytics into the realm of the practical.
-Lawrence D. Pixley, FACMPE, Founding Partner, Stroudwater Associates
